This article was first published on November 6, 2008 and is cited here.
According to many pundits we are now “in the greatest crisis since the Great Depression.” Fear and loathing have become the dominant emotions of people checking their 401k plans and listening to the evening news.
But let’s not panic. The outlook right now may be grim, but precedent abounds for the human ability to solve problems and create a better world. Futurist projects, like the Authentic Futures project at the Institute for Alternative Futures, support this process by cultivating a longer-term perspective on today’s headlines.
Most people imagine that next week will be like this week, as will the week after than. So they are surprised to notice a significant transformation that has taken place. Futurists see the present in the context of both past and future and can imagine scenarios and outcomes very different from today. In that light, let us consider what is taking place now.
In Generations, William Strauss and Neil Howe describe a cycle of four “types” of generations, which has repeated itself throughout American history. Leaving the theory’s details aside, let us consider the four most recent generations to come of age – the G.I.’s, the Silent Generation, Boomers, and Generation X.
The G.I.’s came of age during a period of great secular crisis – the Great Depression and World War II. They accepted the challenge of their time, and – by controlling the White House from 1961 to 1993 – went on to create the institutions that still govern and organize our lives.
Their children, the Silents, sacrificed in childhood to support the war effort, and then grew to admire the achievements of their parents. They became compromisers, able to see both sides of an issue and to mediate between the G.I.’s ahead of them and the Boomers and behind them. Like John McCain, this was a generation of “mavericks” – not completely sold on the G.I. institutions, but too old to attend what McCain has referred to as the “musical and pharmacological event[s]” of the 1960′s.
The Boomers initiated a period of spiritual awakening in the 1960′s, and then brought the same idealistic fervor to their subsequent endeavors. For other Boomers, this awakening manifested itself in a revival of evangelical Christianity. Given the divisions within this generation, the combative tone of recent political campaigns should come as no surprise.
Idealistic Boomers neglected Generation X “latchkey kids,” who grew up cynical and focused on material success. Again, no surprise that MBA programs have boomed as this generation has passed through the MBA age-bracket. This generation has struggled, and thus has the pragmatism to lead society through crisis.
So where are we now, generationally? We now see the emergence of a new generation as civic-minded as the G.I.’s. These are the “Millennials” – born between 1981 and 2003 – who are now expressing their desire to tackle the world’s challenges in economics, health care, and the environment. They will quickly cast aside the idealistic “good-versus-evil” agenda of that sect of Boomers who see Islamic terrorism as the fundamental challenge of the 21st century. A Millennial might point out that after a certain amount of climate change, there will be nothing left for terrorists to attack.
Let’s suppose that the first post-Millennial generation – born 2004-2026 – reflects the pattern of the Silent Generation. They would benefit from the stability of global institutions built by Millennials, but they themselves would have little additional building to do.
I call this generation the “Globals” – they will live comfortable lives in a global society designed and built by Millennials. Strauss and Howe point out that Williamsburg, Virginia was most like what we now see in the Colonial Williamsburg historic site during the 1720′s and 1730′s, when a generation corresponding to the Globals was coming of age.
The 21st century will really get interesting when the Globals’ children – the “Spirituals,” born 2027-2049 – come of age. Like the Boomers, they will rebel against the spiritual immaturity of the global system built by their grandparents, and they will look inward for meaning. Advances in psychology and neurotechnology during the first half of the 21st century will have their maximum impact as this generation comes of age, seizes the reins, and directs these insights toward a deeper understanding of human spirituality.
This generational view is one of many approaches used by futures to think about the future. These methods allow us to explore what might happen in the future in order to develop a deeper understanding of what is happening today.
For example, a sober group of new leaders (e.g. Nicolas Sarkozy, Barack Obama) are taking practical steps (calling for a global economic summit, pushing for a “green economy”) that may someday lead to new institutions designed for 21st century life in a global economy. The generation now graduating from college is eager for a chance to solve the world’s problems. Boomers like Al Gore and Bill Gates are taking on new roles as visionary elders to infuse the new structures with values. Life will be good for the Globals.
However, many people get stuck in the grim headlines of today’s newspapers and cannot see what may really be taking place. So let’s everybody take a deep breath. The world is not coming to an end. In fact, any environment offers plenty of opportunities to those who can think creatively and proactively about the future
Nice read, however a small chill went down my back when you mentioned Mr Gore as a visionary elder. Please remember, so many numbers that he uses to back up his thesis on global warming have been proven to be inaccurate and misleading. Mr Gore has increased his net worth from a few million dollars to slightly above one hundred million on with book sales and speaking tours. I wonder if Mr Gore has an a vested interest in keeping the fear talk humming? Oh, maybe he got the vast fortune from inventing the internet.
I appreciate your comment, and I don’t want to read into it anything that isn’t there, but it does raise in me the following thoughts:
Although there may be some disputes about specific data used by Al Gore, I think anyone would be hard-pressed to argue that climate change is either (a) not real, or (b) not a serious concern. So to some extent the focus that many have on the data of climate change may reflect what I’ve covered in a different post about the dual (and to some extent mutually exclusive in that one tends to be preferred over the other) modes of perceiving that are described in Jungian personality theory and in the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator – Intuition and Sensing. Sensing refers to a grasp of the facts and data. Intuition refers to an understanding of a wider range of possibilities and – to some extent – a general notion of where things are going (perhaps through an openness to “weak signals” that are already here) even if the facts and data have not yet appeared. In fact, both methods of perceiving are perfectly legitimate and both will be required if humanity is going to learn how to make better decisions.